2026 Arizona quail hunting forecast | by AZ Quail Biologist, Kirby Bristow
Humans have been predicting hunting success ever since the first neolithic hunter tried to talk his friends into helping him kill a mammoth with a bunch of pointed sticks. I imagine that the conversation went something like this, “Sure it’ll be dangerous but the last time we went, only one hunter got trampled and we brought back enough meat to feed the whole village!” Our neolithic hunter might have qualified his forecast with something like “Remember how easy our hunt was last year when it snowed? It just snowed, let’s go!” These correlations with past conditions have informed hunting forecasts ever since. While our predictive capabilities are more refined, they are still basically estimates based on previous experience under specific conditions.
Among wild game species, quail tend to have high reproductive capacity yet relatively low survival. This produces populations that fluctuate wildly from year to year subject to the vagaries of environmental conditions. These environmental conditions are largely driven by weather, and in Arizona the most important weather factor affecting quail habitat is precipitation. Timely precipitation affects the growth of annual forbs and grasses that provide both food and cover for quail, influencing reproductive success and survival that results in annual population increases. The timing of the precipitation is important as it relates to the timing of the normal nesting season, and each of the native quail species in Arizona nest at different times of the year. Wildlife Biologists have investigated the relationship between amount and timing of rainfall and population parameters of various quail species and established the correlations used to make forecasts.
In addition to timely rainfall, quail populations are affected by the amount of breeding adults available at the beginning of the nesting season. Since annual survival is low, the amount of breeding adults is generally correlated with productivity from the previousyear. The Arizona Game and Fish Department monitors quail species populations and harvest annually with different surveys, and hunter sampling efforts that provide data to inform management and forecast hunt success. Based on this information and my personal experience, I am providing a species-specific forecast for Arizona quail hunting in 2026.
Gambel’s quail are Arizona‘s most prolific and widespread upland game bird. They have the largest clutch sizes, and they nest during the late Spring/early Summer. Consequently, their productivity and numbers are best after years with good spring green-up following wet winters. Precipitation between October and March is correlated with increased reproduction and hunt success the following year. Last year, after an extremely dry winter in 2024-25, Gambel’s quail production and numbers were low. Percent juveniles in the harvest were extremely low at hunter check station last year. However, the winter of 2025-26 was wetter than average and there was an encouraging spring green-up. Spring call counts, which is an index to breeding activity, were higher than average in 2026. Consequently, there should be some reproductive output and with their high reproductive capacity Gambel’s quail populations should be better than last year. Still, with the low breeding population, this will likely result in good covey sizes but fewer coveys. Any area that had Gambel’s quail last year will be worth visiting this year.
Mearns’ quail are probably the least productive quail species in Arizona, due to lower clutch sizes. Mearns’ quail coveys are usually composed of a single pair of adults with their juveniles from that year. Consequently, the covey sizes tend to be smaller even in good reproduction years. Mearns quail nest in late summer, and they are therefore dependent on the summer rains and subsequent green-up. The summer rains for 2026 have been encouraging thus far, especially in the “sky islands” region of southeast Arizona that contains the most popular Mearns’ quail hunting areas. Last year was what I would describe as a building year for Mearns’ quail, we’d had good nesting conditions but a low base population, so while covey sizes were good, there were very few coveys due to the low population resulting from the summer drought of 2024. Results of the wing barrel sampling had average percent juveniles, but hunt success was lower than average. This year, assuming the rains keep up, we should have good Mearns’ quail reproduction and again, any area that held Mearns’ quail last year should be worth visiting this year.
Scaled quail are intermediate between Mearns’ and Gambel’s quail in both nest timing and clutch sizes. Scaled quail nest in mid-summer, and their clutches are not as large as Gambel’s quail. Scaled quail have been classified as “facultative” breeders, meaning that they can take advantage of either good winter or summer rains. In New Mexico, the heart of scaled quail distribution, the percent juveniles sampled in the fall was correlated with summer rainfall, and it has been my experience that the best scaled quail numbers in Arizona also follow wet summers. Thus, my predictions for scaled quail numbers would be similar to Mearns’ quail. However, I have not hunted scaled quail much over the last couple of years, so I can’t offer much in the way of recent personal experience. Given the recent summer rains, I intend to try out some of my favorite scaled quail hunting spots this year.
In conclusion, though I am not predicting a banner quail year for Arizona, we have had some rains that should provide favorable conditions and improved bird numbers this fall. I hope the readers find this useful and hope everyone enjoys the Arizona quail habitat safely and responsibly.